The week of March 15 saw unprecedented increases in sales across the grocery store. Total store sales were up 62.5%, according to IRI. Where in the early weeks, non-edible categories such as paper goods, disinfectants, toilet paper and hand sanitizer were the biggest drivers of sales, food categories took over as the lead growth area as COVID-19 related measures sharpened. For the week ending March 15, 2020, non-edibles grew 60.4% and edibles grew an unbelievable 71.1%. Growth was seen across the aisles, from fresh to frozen to center store, and baked goods were no exception. Sales in the bakery aisle increased 62.3% over the week ending March 15 and IRI found an increase of 44.3% for combined cookies and crackers.
Bakery Aisle
School and office closures are driving more at-home breakfast, coffee break and lunch occasions, which drove significant jumps in sales in the bakery aisle. On the one hand, IRI data shows big jumps in the more functional bakery aisle items, such as bread, rolls and buns. Looking at the sales surges in peanut butter, jelly, deli meats and hot dogs, it is clear that shoppers are looking for convenient, fulfilling lunch and dinner options. Considering that hot dog sales were up 123% over this same week and deli meat advanced +40.4%, the demand for bread, rolls and buns is a given. Likewise, bagels and English muffins saw big increase, at around 50%. On the other hand, more indulgent bakery items, such as pastries, doughnuts and bakery snacks also saw increased sales over the week of March 15 versus the comparable week in 2019. “In the midst of all the change, shoppers are still looking for their morning routine cup of coffee with a perhaps a doughnut, bagel or little pastry,” says Jonna Parker, Team Lead, Fresh for IRI, “much like they would have when running to the nearest coffee shop by the office. Grocery stores now fulfill all those meal occasions.”
| Sales increase for the week ending 3/1/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/8/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/15/2020 | Weekly sales for week ending 3/15/2020 | |
| Bakery aisle | -1.3% | +3.0% | +44.3% | $621.1M |
| Fresh bread and rolls | -0.4% | +4.9% | +58.6% | $380.3M |
| Pastries and doughnuts | -0.8% | +0.9% | +29.1% | $91.9M |
| Bakery snacks | -2.8% | +2.2% | +23.1% | $64.8M |
| Pies and cakes | -6.5% | -5.1% | +2.4% | $34.7M |
| Bagels | +1.7% | +4.7% | +49.7% | $28.9M |
| English muffins | -5.6% | +0.4% | +51.4% | $20.4M |
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending 3/15/2020, represents all UPC items
Cookies and Crackers
Other baked goods, including cookies and crackers, saw big increases as well. Not only are breakfast and lunch occasions moving from out-of-home to at-home, but so are the morning and afternoon snacks. School closures, in particular, will have a profound impact on these snack rituals, not to mention a little smile and happiness amid these difficult times.
Sales of crackers started to gear up at the onset of the coronavirus-related measures, at +9.1% over the week ending March 8. Sales accelerated further for the week ending 3/15, to +75.6%. Cookies went from seeing some sales pressure early in March to a 50.5% increase for the week ending March 15 versus the comparable week in 2019.
| Sales increase for the week ending 3/1/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/8/2020 | Sales increase for the week ending 3/15/2020 | Weekly sales for week ending 3/15/2020 | |
| Cookies and crackers | +0.1% | +6.3% | +62.3% | $466.5 |
| Cookies | -1.7% | +3.9% | +50.5% | 229.8 |
| Crackers | +2.1% | +9.1% | +75.6% | 236.7 |
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending 3/15/2020, represents all UPC items
In-Store Bakery
As many retailers have closed or reduced their in-store bakery offering, sales increases paced behind total store but still jumped from a decline of -1.2% in the week ending 3/8/20 to a year-over-year growth of +10.3%. Fast-rising sellers in in-store bakery of at least $1 million in weekly sales were croissants, rolls, and bread. “As dine-in restaurant options closed, the fresh in-store baked bread and rolls became a way for consumers to plus-up their home-made lunches and dinners. This was similar to a trend we saw during the Great Recession and one retailers should keep in mind. Even though in-store baked goods are not the focus right now, there are still consumer needs the department can fulfill,” said Parker.
| Sales increase for the week ending 3/15/2020 | |
| In-store bakery total | +10.3% |
| Croissants | +42.7% |
| Rolls | +34.9% |
| Bread | +31.3% |
| Bagels | +15.2% |
| Cookies | +12.5% |
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, week ending 3/15/2020, represents non-UPC baked goods
These kinds of sales surges are only possible thanks to the incredible efforts of the entire bakery supply chain. These individuals are not only keeping the supply going, but are ramping up production to provide the American people with the foods they need during these challenging times. #SupermarketSuperHeroes #BakingStrong #FeedingUS
About the Author
Principal and Founder, Anne-Marie Roerink, specializes in quantitative and qualitative market research. Prior to launching 210 Analytics, she served as the Director of Research for the Food Marketing Institute (FMI). Responsible for all research projects, she distilled complex research data into usable and easy-to-understand materials for business audiences ranging from America’s largest retail chains to single-store family companies. Studies and presentations included shopper insights; retailer benchmarking and trending in financial, operational and tactical areas; and internally-focused research such as conference evaluations and member needs assessments.
Before joining FMI, Anne-Marie served as the Director of Marketing and Research at the American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA) and oversaw all primary and secondary research efforts, as well as the association’s membership and conference marketing.
