ABA has compiled updates on key races that will impact the baking industry. This includes the race for President, Congress, state governors, and legislatures. We are in political overtime...
Here’s what we know:
- As of Wednesday afternoon, the Presidential and key Senate races remain undecided. Margins are small and recounts/litigation should be expected in several states.
- Both President Trump and former Vice President Biden have viable paths to victory, but most pundits have Biden as the favorite.
- Will the 6-3 conservative SCOTUS have a role in the outcome?
- ABA Champions Sen. Susan Collins R-ME, Sen. Steve Daines R-MT, Sen. Joni Ernst R-IA have won reelection and it appears to be very positive for PAC backed Sen. Thom Tillis R-NC. Democrats are very unlikely to gain a majority in the Senate with the only 50/50 balance running straight through Georgia. Twice.
- PAC suffered tough Senate losses with Sen. Cory Gardner R-CO and most likely Candidate John James R-MI. He is my favorite candidate in a long time and this one hurts. American Bakers PAC did not engage in the Arizona Senate race between Incumbent McSally and Challenger Kelly.
- Republicans are poised to pick up net 5-10 net seats in the House. This was completely unexpected and district pollsters have never been so wrong.
- Democrats suffered erosion amongst Hispanic voters. GOP flipped two House seats in Miami and Republicans did not lose a single House seat in Texas.
State Elections
- In the states….no clear trends. Montana picked up a Republican Governor, Greg Gianforte. Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina appears to have won by a slim majority.
- New York Democrats did not gain a veto-proof majority in the state Senate while Kansas Republicans won a supermajority in their Senate. The Texas House remains in Republican control, despite many pundits who called for a Democrat takeover.
- California’s ballot measure, Prop 22, passed by a significant margin. It was the most expensive ballot measure in history and symbolized a bitter struggle over the future of the gig economy. Uber, Lyft and other companies who utilize app-based drivers have won the battle to continue classifying drivers as independent contractors, not employees.
- Colorado approved a ballot measure to create a statewide pool to pay for extended family leave. Florida voters approved an increase to the state’s minimum wage to $15/hr. In Mississippi, voters decided to swap out the Confederate symbol on the state flag for a Magnolia blossom.
- A lot of election-wide polling failures. The Trafalgar Group came through with solid predictions. For example, they were the only firm to correctly predict Trump’s win in Florida and have been saying all along that the Presidential race was going to be close when others in the polling universe were calling for a Blue Wave that clearly did not happen.
ABA continues to monitor election developments and will keep Members up to date.
